Summary
Taiwan’s political status is a bitterly contested issue in East Asian affairs. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) considers Taiwan a renegade province that should be reunified with the mainland, while Taiwan asserts its de facto sovereignty. China has threatened a military response to any attempt by Taiwan to declare its independence. The situation is further complicated by the role the United States (U.S.) plays in the dispute. While the U.S. officially adheres to a “one China” policy that recognizes the mainland’s sovereignty over Taiwan, the U.S. nonetheless continues to maintain a supplementary diplomatic and security relationship with Taiwan, much to China’s dismay. Despite the political conflict, the economic relationship between Taiwan and the mainland has deepened in recent years. Although official talks on reunification have not been held, China and Taiwan have reached some agreements on transportation issues.
Background/Context
Japan acquired Taiwan as a colony in 1895 after its victory over China in the Sino-Japanese war. Although the Taiwanese resent Japan’s brutal rule, the Japanese often argue that their occupation of Taiwan laid the economic foundations for future growth. After Japan’s defeat in World War II in 1945, the allied powers agreed to give Taiwan back to Chiang Kai-shek’s government, which at that point controlled most of China. However, China became embroiled in a civil war between Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalist party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), lead by Mao Zedong. Following the CCP’s victory in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and his government, along with 1.5 million people, fled to Taiwan. Chiang Kai-shek’s government established the Republic of China (ROC), with Taipei as its provisional capital, and claimed to represent all of China. The U.S. and its allies recognized the ROC as the legitimate government of China. The ROC represented China as a permanent member of the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council.
In 1971, the U.N. General Assembly voted to designate the PRC as the official representative of China. As a result, Taiwan lost its seat on the Security Council. That same year, the Nixon administration, hoping to take advantage of growing Sino-Soviet tensions, used its contacts in Pakistan to hold secret discussions with the PRC. In 1972, President Nixon made an historic visit to China, where he signed the Shanghai communiqué, which committed the U.S. to normalizing its relations with China. By signing this, the U.S. adopted a “one China” policy in which it recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China (including Taiwan).
When the U.S. formally ended its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and normalized relations with China in 1979, the U.S. Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act. The act pledges that the U.S. will help Taiwan “resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” The legislation authorized the government to maintain its arms sales to Taiwan. It established the American Institute in Taiwan, a de facto American embassy that operates in Taipei. Taiwan also established a de facto embassy in the U.S. called the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office. China does not recognize the legitimacy of the Taiwan Relations Act, viewing it as an intrusion into its internal affairs. In particular, China opposes U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Since 1949, the stated goal of the KMT was to regain control of all of China. In 1991, however, the KMT abandoned this goal, claiming sovereignty over Taiwan alone. The Taiwanese government established the National Unification Council, a body whose mandate is to promote reunification with the mainland. The council subsequently produced a set of guidelines for national unification. The guidelines established a gradual, three-step process for unification. The first stage would increase exchanges across the Strait. The second stage would increase commercial ties by establishing direct postal, transportation, and trade links across the Strait. Afterwards, there would be mutual visits by high-ranking officials from both sides. In the third and final stage, a consultative organization would devise a constitutional arrangement for unification under a “democratic, free, and equitably prosperous China.”
In 1992, talks were in held in Hong Kong between the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations Across Taiwan Straits (ARATS). The SEF is a group established by the Taiwanese government to deal with cross-strait business matters. The ARATS is its Chinese counterpart. The talks resulted in the adoption of the “1992 Consensus” in which both sides accepted the “one China” principle, although they had different interpretations of what that concept actually meant. Although progress was made on transportation and trade issues, the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis stalled the negotiations.
In 1995, as Taiwan’s first democratic presidential election neared, China became increasingly worried that Lee Teng-hui, the leader of the KMT, would be elected. Lee had been an advocate of “pragmatic diplomacy” – an initiative that sought to increase Taiwan’s visibility in the international arena. Taiwan offered economic aid to developing countries, especially in Africa, in exchange for recognizing Taiwan as an independent state and supporting its bids to join high-profile international organizations like the U.N. Cornell University invited Lee Teng-hui to deliver a lecture on democratization. At first, Clinton administration promised China that Lee would not be granted a visa. However, the U.S. Congress then passed a resolution calling on the State Department to authorize Lee’s visit. Lee was then given a visa.
China held a series of complex military exercises to demonstrate that, if necessary, it would be able to blockade or invade the island. The first wave of exercises was held in August 1995, shortly after Lee’s visit to the U.S. The second wave was conducted shortly before Taiwan’s legislative elections in November 1995. As a result, voters elected pro-unification candidates. A month later, the U.S. responded by sending a naval group through the strait – the biggest show of force in the region since the Vietnam War. The third wave was held prior to the presidential election. In response, the U.S. sent two naval groups to the strait to observe the exercises. Despite China’s attempts at intimidation, the Taiwanese electorate voted Lee into office.
In 1997, the Clinton administration went to great lengths to convey to Taiwan that American support and protection were not without limits. President Clinton stated that there would be no support for Taiwanese independence or membership in international organizations in which statehood was a prerequisite.
In 2000, President Chen made several controversial remarks to the news media about Taiwan’s status. He argued that there was no need for Taiwan to declare independence because it was already a sovereign country. After the 2000 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) became the first non-KMT president in Taiwanese history. In contrast to his predecessor, he initially took a less provocative position on Taiwan’s status. Although he was previously a supporter of independence, he stated that he would not pursue independence unless China used force against the island. In addition, he pledged not to change the island’s official name to the Republic of Taiwan, not to hold a referendum on Taiwan’s status, not to revise the Taiwanese constitution to include mention of special state-to-state relations, and not to abolish the National Unification Council. However, the National Unification Council has not held any meetings since 2000.
In early 2005, the leader of the KMT visited the mainland and met with Chinese President Hu Jintao. It was the highest level meeting between Chinese and Taiwanese officials since 1945. The DDP, which initially opposed the visit, accused China of trying to further divide Taiwanese public opinion. President Chen later gave support to the visit on the condition that the KMT did not make any agreements with the mainland. The U.S. responded favorably to the visit, but encouraged China to engage the DDP as well.
Later in 2005, China passed an anti-secession law that authorizes the use of force if Taiwan tries to declare independence. The law increased cross-strait tensions. China claimed that the law was not meant to spark a war, but instead promote peaceful unification with Taiwan. In response, the U.S. expressed dismay and called the law “unnecessary.”
In February 2006, President Chen Shui-bian terminated the National Unification Council and formally abandoned the unification guidelines it established. President Chen said the decision was a result of the “military threat” China posed to Taiwan. China fiercely criticized the decision, calling it a move toward formal independence that would destabilize regional security. In a rare rebuke, Chinese President Hu Jintao warned that Taiwan was taking a "dangerous step." As well, a statement was released from the Taiwan Affairs Office saying, "We will never permit Taiwan independence and splittist forces under any name or under any form to separate Taiwan from the motherland." The U.S. also sharply criticized the decision, sternly warning Taiwan against altering the status quo.
In May 2006, the U.S. refused to grant President Chen permission to make an overnight visit to the continental U.S. on his way back from Latin America. Observers noted that U.S. refusal was partly a result of Chen’s decision to abolish Taiwan’s reunification council in February.
In June 2006, China and Taiwan reached an agreement that allows airlines to operate non-stop flights between Taiwan and the mainland during holidays. Cargo flights may be authorized on a case-by-case basis. Cross-strait air travel has been non-existent since 1949 and travelers have been forced to connect through Hong Kong or Macao. A deal is in the works to allow more Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan.
Elections in Taiwan in 2008 set the territory on course for improved relations with Beijing. With the votes counted, Kuomintang’s candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, claimed an easy victory over Democratic Progressive Party candidate, Frank Hsieh, with 58.45 percent of the vote share.
The new president said that he would advance improved economic and political relations with Beijing, including improved trade relations. Newly-elected President Ma Ying-jeou charted a new course in regard to Beijing, which was dubbed "mutual non-denial" and acknowledged the impossibility of mutual recognition. To that end, he said, "We will not deny their existence but we cannot recognize their sovereignty [over Taiwan]." Newly-elected President Ma Ying-jeou additionally advocated the development of a peace treaty with Beijing, on condition that it remove its missiles (around 1,000) pointed toward Taiwan. In this way, the election of the new president marked a significant departure from the nationalist orientation of outgoing Chen Shui-bian.
June 2008 saw the authorities in mainland China and Taiwan agree to establish cross-strait travel. Indeed, Beijing and Taipei signed an agreement that would institute direct flights across the strait every weekend, rather than only during four holiday periods annually. In addition, Beijing and Taipei also decided to host permanent representatives’ offices. The agreement was forged as a result of the first official meeting between the two sides in close to a decade. The two sides have endured strained relations in recent years, however, the election of the new pro-Beijing Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou set relations along a more harmonious path. Unlike his predecessor, Ma has said his priority is to establish regional stability, which includes improving relations with Beijing. The issue of regional stability aside, the new agreement was also expected to advance tourism, business and investment in Taiwan, while improving China's appeal in the months ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
Current Initiative
At present, talks between Taiwan and the mainland are focused solely on commercial and transportation issues. While cross-strait tensions grew increasingly strained after China’s 2005 anti-secession law and the abolishment of Taiwan’s National Unification Council, the election of a new president 2008 augured thawing of relations as discussed above.
Foreign Policy Positions of Key Players
China
China regards Taiwan as a renegade province that is part of its territory. In the Chinese view, Taiwan’s reintegration into the mainland is necessary if China is to maintain its territorial integrity. If Taiwan were allowed to secede, China fears that Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet might be similarly inspired to declare independence. In 2005, China even went so far as to draft an anti-secession law. China’s insistence on reunification, since the 1980s, it has expressed a willingness to grant Taiwan some degree of political autonomy. Under such an arrangement, there would be one China, but two political systems. China has threatened to use military force should Taiwan unilaterally declare its independence. As demonstrated during the 1995-96 missile crisis, China has considerable military influence over Taiwan. China currently has 710 to 790 short-range ballistic missiles deployed across the strait. China goes to great lengths to protest continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, accusing the U.S. of meddling internal Chinese affairs. However, some doubt that China would resort to war to recapture Taiwan, as that would run the risk of compromising China’s participation in the global economy. China believes that the U.S. is working in coordination with Japan to prevent Taiwan’s unification with the mainland.
Taiwan
Public opinion polls generally show that the Taiwanese electorate favors the status quo and opposes reunification. Although Taiwanese citizens are reluctant to support actions that could provoke a military response, a substantial number support formal independence as an eventual goal. The KMT, which in 1991 abandoned its claim to represent all of China, has in recent years softened its position toward the mainland. The KMT has advocated establishing closer economic ties and was very critical of Chen’s decision to abolish the National Unification Council. The DDP, meanwhile, favors independence from China. Taiwan is closely observing the integration of Hong Kong, a former British colony that was returned to China in 1997, to see if the concept of “one country, two systems” is a viable political arrangement. Taiwan has avoided declaring formal independence for fear that the U.S. would not intervene if China responded with military force.
United States
U.S. policy is currently characterized as “strategic ambiguity” – meaning that the U.S. seeks to preserve the status quo by cautioning both sides against attempting to change it through non-peaceful means. The U.S. has been committed to a “one China” policy since it signed the Shanghai communiqué in 1972, although China has questioned the American commitment to that principle given continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act requires the U.S. to assist Taiwan in its defense against external threats. Many observers doubt that the U.S. would risk war with China to come to Taiwan’s aid if it were to unilaterally declare its independence. Despite giving early indications that it would take a more hawkish stance toward China, such as calling the PRC a “strategic competitor,” the Bush administration has sternly warned Taiwan against altering the status quo. Secretary of State Colin Powell caused a controversy in 2004 when he stated in frank terms that Taiwan is not an independent country and that it should pursue unification with China. Although Powell was quick to assure the Taiwanese that his remarks did not signal a change in U.S. policy and that the U.S. still favored a “peaceful resolution” of the issue, some observers believed his remarks were meant to warn President Chen against declaring independence. In March 2006, the U.S. expressed its displeasure with President Chen’s decision to terminate the National Unification Council.
Japan
Japan has had formal relations with the PRC since it severed ties with Taiwan in 1972. Officially, Japan advocates the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. Japan believes that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would disrupt its shipments of oil from the Middle East. In the last decade, Japanese policymakers have sought to increase their responsibilities and obligations within the U.S.-Japan security alliance as they relate to Taiwan. Shortly after the 1996 missile crisis, Japan revised its security policy, pledging to assist the U.S. in a logistical capacity with future crises in the Taiwan Strait. In February 2005, the U.S. and Japan made a joint announcement that declared stability in the Strait to be a “common security objective” and extended the role Japan would play in assisting U.S. military efforts in the region. Sino-Japanese relations in general have deteriorated in recent years as a result of territorial disputes in the East China Sea and controversies about Japan’s historical legacy. Sino-Japanese economic ties, however, continue to flourish. Japan angered China by granting former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui a tourist visa.
Holy See
The Holy See has offered to sever ties with Taiwan in order to establish a formal diplomatic relationship with mainland China. The Holy See would be the last European government to recognize the PRC.
International Organizations
Due to its diplomatic status, Taiwan’s full participation in international organizations is limited. In international organizations in which Taiwan is still allowed to participate, it is often ambiguously referred to as “Chinese Taipei.” In June 1971, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution which designated the PRC as the official representative of China. Taiwan has been excluded from the U.N. and its related organization ever since. In 2002, the World Trade Organization (WTO) admitted Taiwan shortly after China’s entry. However, the WTO does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country, only as a separate customs territory within China that has different trade rules. Taiwan currently participates in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings as a “member economy,” although, unlike other members, the Taiwanese president is not allowed to attend the annual summit and must instead send a subordinate envoy from the Taiwanese economic ministry. Taiwan is currently attempting to join the World Health Organization (WHO). Taiwan is also a member of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) and the Asian Development Bank.
Written by Ryan Holliway, Researcher and Writer, CountryWatch Inc. and Denise Youngblood Coleman, Editor in Chief, CountryWatch Inc.
Sources: BBC, New York Times, Taiwan Journal, Washington Post, Yale Global, Asia Times, Agence France-Presse, Reuters, Xinhua.